Mathematical modelling of the spread of infectious diseases
Members of the research team from the DAMS
doc. Mgr. Richard Kollár, PhD.
doc. Dr. Zuzana Chladná
doc. Mgr. Pavol Bokes, PhD.
prof. RNDr. Daniel Ševčovič, DrSc.
Mgr. Ján Somorčík, PhD.
Mgr. Ján Gašper, DiS.art.
The aim of the research is to estimate the public health impact of changes in vaccination indicators on the epidemiological situation. In our research, we focus on highly contagious diseases and their epidemic threats in EU countries. We pay particular attention to two main indicators of vaccination: the vaccination rates and the timeliness of vaccination. Using mathematical and statistical models, we investigate several possible vaccination scenarios and then we evaluate their public health, social and economic impact. We also forecast the epidemiological situation using deterministic and stochastic models and measure the social impact on individuals and society through QALY and DALY indicators.
Selected papers
Chladná, Z: Optimal time to intervene: The case of measles child immunization, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2018, 15(1):323-335.
Chladna, Z., Moltchanova, E. (2015). Incentive to vaccinate: A synthesis of two approaches. Acta Mathematica Universitatis Comenianae, 84(2), 283-296.
H. Hudečková, D. Ševčovič, et al. (co-authors: Z. Chladná, S. Kilianová, P. Brunovský): Biomatematické modelovanie a vyhodnocovanie indikátorov ochorení preventabilných očkovaním, Published by IRIS – Vydavateľstvo a tlač, s.r.o., Bratislava, Slovakia, 2017, 180 pp., ISBN 978-80-8200-002-6.
J. Zibolenová, V. Szabóová, T. Baška, D. Ševčovič, H. Hudečková: Mathematical modeling of varicella spread in Slovakia, Central European Journal of Public Health, 2015; 23 (3): 227-232.
J. Zibolenová, D. Ševčovič, T. Baška, D. Rošková, E. Malobická, V. Szabóová, V. Švihrová, H. Hudečková: Matematické modelovanie infekčných ochorení detského veku, Česko-Slovenská pediatrie, 70(4) 2015, 210-214.
P. Brunovský, D. Ševčovič, J. Somorčík, D. Hroncova and K. Pospíšilová: Socio-economic impacts of pandemic influenza mitigation scenarios in Slovakia. Ekonomický časopis, 57(2), 2009, 163-178.
